@MastersThesis{Barreto:2015:AvDeSi,
author = "Barreto, Elaine Cristina Abreu",
title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o do desempenho do sistema de previs{\~a}o
por conjuntos do CPTEC/INPE na detec{\c{c}}{\~a}o de
v{\'o}rtices cicl{\^o}nicos de altos n{\'{\i}}veis na
regi{\~a}o tropical",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2015",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2015-06-09",
keywords = "previs{\~a}o por conjuntos, VCAN, regi{\~a}o tropical,
prediction for ensemble, UACV, northern region.",
abstract = "Este estudo pioneiro tem por objetivo avaliar o desempenho do
Sistema de Previs{\~a}o por Conjunto (SPCON) na
detec{\c{c}}{\~a}o de V{\'o}rtices Cicl{\^o}nicos de Altos
N{\'{\i}}veis (VCAN) na regi{\~a}o tropical. O SPCON avaliado
{\'e} a vers{\~a}o MB09 do Centro de Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e
Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (CPTEC/INPE), que encontra-se ainda em fase de
implementa{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Esta vers{\~a}o conta com
modifica{\c{c}}{\~o}es no m{\'e}todo de cria{\c{c}}{\~a}o das
condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es iniciais perturbadas. O desempenho do SPCON
foi avaliado sobre v{\'a}rios aspectos: avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o
geral do SPCON, avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o semiobjetiva atrav{\'e}s da
disposi{\c{c}}{\~a}o geogr{\'a}fica das previs{\~o}es dos
membros do conjunto, e avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o objetiva atrav{\'e}s
de uma compara{\c{c}}{\~a}o entre o desempenho da m{\'e}dia do
conjunto (ENM) e o desempenho do membro controle (CTRL), al{\'e}m
de uma compara{\c{c}}{\~a}o das vers{\~o}es MB09 e OPER
(vers{\~a}o futura e operacional, respectivamente) do CPTEC/INPE.
Para este estudo foram selecionados 8 eventos que ocorreram no
ver{\~a}o (Dezembro, Janeiro e Fevereiro) entre os anos de 2009 a
2011. A {\'a}rea de estudo compreende os intervalos entre
10\$^{°}\$N e 20\$^{°}\$S e 010\$^{°}\$E e 060\$^{°}\$W. A
fun{\c{c}}{\~a}o de corrente foi a vari{\'a}vel utilizada para
definir a localiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o do VCANs, no n{\'{\i}}vel de
200 hPa, e o {\'{\i}}ndice denominado de Probabilidade de
Detec{\c{c}}{\~a}o (PD) foi utilizado como o indicador de acerto
do centro do VCAN, para os limiares de 2 e 4 graus, a partir do
centro observado. De modo geral os resultados mostraram que, a
taxa de detec{\c{c}}{\~a}o do VCANs diminui {\`a} medida que
aumenta o horizonte de previs{\~a}o, e para prazos mais longos o
ENM tem melhor desempenho do que o CTRL. Os resultados referentes
a avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o semiobjetiva mostraram 3 resultados: i) As
incertezas associadas {\`a}s previs{\~o}es mostraram alto
espalhamento dos membros em curto espa{\c{c}}o de tempo. ii) A
indica{\c{c}}{\~a}o de previsibilidade mostrou que, o desempenho
do SPCON independe do prazo de dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o, havendo,
portanto, baixa e/ ou alta previsibilidade. iii) Os erros
sistem{\'a}ticos mostraram que existe uma tend{\^e}ncia
preferencial na detec{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos centros dos VCANs. Com
rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o a compara{\c{c}}{\~a}o entre as vers{\~o}es
MB09 e OPER, ficou evidente que melhores detec{\c{c}}{\~o}es dos
VCANs na regi{\~a}o Tropical, s{\~a}o produzidas utilizando a
vers{\~a}o MB09 do que a vers{\~a}o atualmente em
opera{\c{c}}{\~a}o no CPTEC/INPE. ABSTRACT: This pioneer study
aims to evaluate the performance of the Ensemble Prediction System
(EPS) on Upper Air Cyclonic Vortex (UACV) detection at tropical
region. The evaluated version is SPCON-MB09 from the Center for
Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE), which still
lies on the implementation phase. This version counts with
modifications on the creation method of the disturbed initial
conditions. The performance of SPCON was evaluated under many
aspects: overall assessment of SPCON semi-objective evaluation by
the geographical disposal of the ensemble members prediction and
objective assessment throughout a comparison between the
performance of the ensemble average (ENM) and the performance of
the member control (CTRL) besides a comparison of the versions
MB09 and OPER (future and operational version, respectively) of
CPTEC/INPE. For this study were selected eight events that
occurred in the summer (December , January and February) between
the years 2009-2011 .The study area comprises the interval between
10\$^{°}\$ N and 20\$^{°}\$S and 010\$^{°}\$ E and
060\$^{°}\$ W. The current function was the variable used to
define the location of the VCAN at the level of 200 hPa and the
index called Probability of Detection (PD) was used as the hit
indicator of the center of the VCANs to the thresholds of 2 and 4
degrees from the observed center. In general, the results showed
that the UACV detection rate decreases as the forecast horizon
increases (up to 360 hours) and for longer terms, the ENM has
better performance than the CTRL. The results related to the
semi-objective evaluation showed many results: i) The
uncertainties associated with forecasts showed high scattering of
members in a short time. ii) The indication of predictability
showed that the performance of SPCON independent of the duration
period, there is therefore low and / or high predictability. iii)
The systematic errors showed that there is a preferred tendency to
detect the center of UACV. Regarding the comparison between the
MB09 and OPER versions, it became clear that better detection of
UACV in Tropical region, are produced using the MB09 version than
the version currently in operation at CPTEC/INPE.",
committee = "Herdies, Dirceu Luis (presidente) and Castro, Christopher
Alexander Cunningham (orientador) and Bonati, Jos{\'e} Paulo
(orientador) and Seluchi, Marcelo Enrique and Souza, Everaldo
Barreiros",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
englishtitle = "Performance of the CPTEC/INPE ensemble prediction system in the
detection of high levels in vortex cyclonic in tropical region",
language = "pt",
pages = "134",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3JK2AC2",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3JK2AC2",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}